Daily Murders in the nation Fall 37% In President Sheinbaum, Per Official Statistics
The mean count of everyday homicides per month in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per recent official statistics. However, security experts have advised that homicide numbers may not point to improved countrywide safety.
Notable Decline in Per-Day Averages
There was an average of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus almost 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum took the presidential office in the previous September. This announcement was shared by the director of the nation's federal public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on Tuesday.
“The figures in homicides that we have seen in these months is extremely important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the least amount of murders were registered for any November in the past 10 years.
Historical Context and Official Plan
Fierce drug cartel internal conflicts, combined with the administration's heavily militarised operations to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in recent times. The figure hit a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's national statistics office.
That resulted in Mexico a murder figure more than four times higher than the United States. From that point, murders have been on the downward trend, dropping to 33,550 last year. The President has linked her public safety approach for an apparently sharper decline in homicides in the current year.
At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, we have oversight of the strategy, and we have specific monitoring locality by locality in some cases. The approach functions. And we have to keep working at it each day.”
The main pillars of the President's safety strategy involve:
- Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
- Enhancing intelligence and investigative efforts.
- Increased cooperation between various agencies.
Analyst Skepticism and Data Concerns
But, public safety researchers warned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of improved security was flawed. This is particularly true given the rise in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.
“This would be very good information if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an expert on Mexico's organised crime. “I would be tentatively hopeful.”
Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year compared with the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have increased by as much as 200%.
“Numbers on murders is not reliable for estimating the situation of insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the desire to properly recognize and categorize remains. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to conceal violent acts through abductions.”
Vargas noted that using monthly means of everyday homicides was additionally problematic because it might obscure days when there were notably elevated numbers of murders.
“Employing the per-day average renders spikes of violence less visible,” he concluded.
Arrests and Seizures as Metrics of Success
Where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 people were apprehended between last October and November 2025 for high-impact offenses, according to government data. More than 20,000 firearms were taken and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.
“Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of inaction, because in reality she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms beneficial,” commented Vargas.
Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger
However in spite of these actions, Mexico remains grappling with extreme bloodshed, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile murder of a popular mayor in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders murdered in the past year.
Weeks later, many thousands of young people demonstrated in the capital and throughout the country to express their frustration at corruption and cartel violence.
“The administration presents [data] in a way to build a picture of security. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, socially it’s very problematic,” Vargas remarked.